3UP: An extra promotion spot will not reduce financial stress; it will increase it

In 1902 the Vietnamese city of Hanoi had a rat problem. Too many rats increased the threat of disease so the local authorities came up with a solution. They would pay local citizens for every rat they killed. To avoid having to clear up the bodies, only a tail was required for payment. Spotting a chance to make a quick buck, people would chop off a tail but neglect to kill the rat. Soon an entrepreneur had the wise idea of setting up a rat farm to supply even more tails. Thus the local government’s common sense incentive made the rat problem even more unsustainable.

In 2026 the National League has a BELT (Bitter Ex League Team) problem. Too many former Football League clubs are clogging up the top level of non-league football, effectively turning it into a professional league, raising wage budgets throughout the National League as the BELTs try to force themselves through the bottleneck of the escape route back to the Football League which currently has room for only two teams a season. The National League Board’s solution is a campaign to increase the number of promotion spots to three, using phrases like “putting football first” and “prehistoric injustice.” Common sense, or will it make clubs even more unsustainable?

Many would say the former but a few sceptics, myself included, are suggesting the latter. My argument is grounded in the historical fortunes of those who have won promotion to the EFL and by questioning the precedent this will set for the rest of the non-league pyramid.

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Prior to 1986 there was no automatic promotion into the Football League. Instead there was a system of re-election where the four clubs who finished at the bottom of Division Four, could be challenged by any non-league team for their place. A simple vote of the 92 clubs would then decide if any changes would happen. These meetings were notorious for the “old pals act” where clubs would vote for each other lest they ended up in the bottom four in the future. There was even one notorious occasion where a non-league applicant lost out when one of their advocates allegedly fell asleep and missed the vote. Thus from 1958 when Division Four was created, to 1986 when automatic promotion was introduced, only six new clubs joined the Football League.

Three of these clubs, Oxford United, Wigan Athletic and Wimbledon, have spent time in the top division and won Wembley finals. The other three (Cambridge United, Hereford United and Peterborough United) have all made the second tier, and only the Bulls could be considered a failure, having folded, with the phoenix club now playing in the National League North.

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Now let’s look at the clubs who have joined the Football League through automatic promotion. Just one team from 1986 then two from 2002. In my opinion only three clubs can be said to have unequivocally made the transition successfully: Burton Albion, Stevenage and Wycombe Wanderers. I would say the jury is still out for Cheltenham Town, Crawley Town, Fleetwood Town and Salford both in terms of progress made in the Football League and longevity. Of the rest, Barnet have just rejoined for the fourth time, Bromley are still riding the crest of their promotion wave, whilst Harrogate sit bottom of the pile. Currently in the National League are Boston United, Forest Green Rovers, Morecambe, Sutton United and Yeovil Town. One division below this you will find Dagenham & Redbridge, Kidderminster Harriers, Macclesfield Town and Scarborough Athletic. Rushden & Diamonds are a further two divisions lower.

“An extra promotion spot will not reduce financial stress; it will increase it. As far as English football goes, the higher the level, the higher the loss, and the higher the dependency on a philanthropist able to subsidise it, year in, year out”

Winning the non-league pyramid game may well engender euphoric feelings of having reached the promised land, but is the hangover worth it? In 2023/24, the last season for which a full set of figures is available, 65 Football League clubs shared a loss of half a billion pounds. This wasn’t all down to Championship clubs chasing Premier League football, a division from which three clubs are promoted of course. If you drill down to League Two, Deloitte calculated the average loss per club at £2.3 million, or £44,230 per week. The less said about Rushden & Diamonds the better, whilst happily Boston, Macclesfield, Morecambe, Scarborough and Yeovil have survived financial trauma. Therefore, I would argue that the sustained effort required to win an election is a better indicator of preparation for the Football League, rather than one successful season on the pitch.

Put quite simply, an extra promotion spot will not reduce financial stress; it will increase it. As far as English football goes, the higher the level, the higher the loss, and the higher the dependency on a philanthropist able to subsidise it, year in, year out. Increasing the incentive to get promoted by widening the promotion bottleneck will only encourage an attitude of “This time next year Rodney, we’ll be Football League millionaires.” Sure one more club will get through, but another basket case will come tumbling back the other way, probably having been promoted not too long ago. The evidence from 40 years of automatic promotion is plain to see.

Promotion needs to be earned on and off the pitch with sound finances and a strong playing squad, ideally driven by revenue from a solid supporter base. Firstly, therefore, National League clubs need to grow up and demonstrate they are collectively a division designed for promotion to the Football League by voting to accept a similar Salary Cost Management Protocol scheme to League Two where a club’s player-related expenditure cannot exceed 50% of turnover. Secondly, although ideally I would prefer only the division champions to be eligible for promotion, I accept two as maintaining the status quo and indeed match that in the rest of the non-league pyramid (I digress but the logical extension of three up from the National League is six down so as not to keep promotion from the National League North and National League South at an “unjust” two). The first criteria in particular should suit the BELTs with their bigger fanbases and thus bigger matchday revenue.

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With only two promotion spots another measure is required to improve the competitiveness of the National League, I would reduce the size of the three divisions to 20 clubs; ideally the Football League would follow suit and bulk promote eight National League clubs on a system based on credit for both financial and playing performance to counter too much loss aversion. Fewer league matches that are more meaningful, especially as this would reduce the need for poorly attended midweek mates, should increase revenue and might even revive interest in ailing cup competitions.

However I absolutely concede my suggestions are ridiculous in the current climate as the new sport of kings only seeks to chase the prestige of higher-level football with fiscal imprudence. Thus the “common sense” of more promotion will prevail and non-league football will become more unsustainable.

Sources:

• Football League clubs’ revenue – Deloitte
• Rules & Governance – EFL